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Korea Chair Monitor | Vol 4 Issue 5
The Korea Chair team takes a biweekly look back at events of interest in Washington, Seoul, and the region from March 10 - March 23, 2016.
Categories: Defense Policy
Indictments, Countermeasures, and Deterrence
“What counts are the political and military consequences of a violation…since these alone will determine whether or not the violator stands to gain in the end.”
Fred Ikle, “After Detection, What?” 1961
Categories: Defense Policy
Key Trends in the Uncertain Metrics of Terrorism
It is now some 15 years since 9/11, the United States has not only conducted a constant campaign against terrorism since that time, but has been at war with violent Islamist extremists in Afghanistan, then Iraq, and then Syria.
Categories: Defense Policy
Shifting Political Economy of Russian Oil and Gas
Russia is one of the world’s largest hydrocarbon resource holders, producers, and exporters, but it is undergoing an uncertain economic and energy transition.
Categories: Defense Policy
PacNet #30 - A pragmatic public: observations of Japan’s 2016 Public Opinion Survey on Diplomacy
As controversy swirls around the security policies of the Abe Shinzo government, the Japanese public remains a stabilizing force in foreign policy.
Categories: Defense Policy
Impact Player: Vincent K. Brooks
General Vincent K. Brooks has been nominated to be the new Commander of United Nations Command (UNC), Combined Forces Command (CFC), and United States Forces Korea (USFK). General Brooks moves into this position after serving as Commanding General of U.S. Army Pacific (USARPAC), a position he held since July 2013.
Categories: Defense Policy
PacNet #29 - Obama’s recent China policy – more resolve, rising tension
Anticipated positive interaction between President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the nuclear summit in Washington on Mar. 31-Apr. 1 probably will not change Obama’s more resolute approach to the challenges the Xi administration has posed to US interests.
Categories: Defense Policy
FY17 Budget Squeezes MDA’s Research and Development
The recently released $7.5 billion FY17 budget request for the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) represents an $822 million reduction from last year’s enacted budget. These cuts are essentially divided between procurement ($501 million) and research and development ($322 million) as compared to the $8.3 billion MDA budget enacted by Congress for FY16.
Categories: Defense Policy
PacNet #28 - Philippines v. China arbitration: be careful what you wish for
Sometime in late-spring/early-summer, an arbitral tribunal constituted under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) will issue a highly-awaited final ruling on a Filipino protestation that China’s maritime claims – and actions in defense of those claims – in the South China Sea are contrary to UNCLOS and thereby a violation of the Philippines’ sover
Categories: Defense Policy
The Army Modernization Challenge
Since 2008, Army modernization ([1] Procurement; and [2] Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation (RDT&E) accounts) total obligation authority has fallen by 74 percent in real terms. In absolute terms, this decline seems substantial, but how does the current Army modernization trajectory compare to the challenges faced in previous defense drawdowns?
Categories: Defense Policy
Beyond the Headlines: The U.S.-Brazil Relationship
The turmoil in Brazilian politics has reached a head with the potential impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff , as the economic crisis and
Categories: Defense Policy
Afghanistan: Shift to a “Conditions–Based” Strategy or Lose the “Forgotten War”
The Obama Administration’s lack of focus on the Afghan War is symbolized by the fact that it is no longer even listed as one of the “Top Issues” on the Department of Defense’s website.
Categories: Defense Policy
Thornberry’s Acquisition Bill: Defense Reform Awakens
Q1: Why did House Armed Services Committee chairman Mac Thornberry release a stand-alone acquisition reform bill on March 15, 2016?
Categories: Defense Policy
PacNet #27 - Principles for planning a US alliance with a unified Korea
North Korea’s fourth nuclear test this past January and its long-range missile launch in February underscore the fact that the reclusive regime remains, in the words of Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, an “up close, dangerous, and continuing threat to the security of the Peninsula and the region.” Pyongyang’s actions highlight the role of the US-ROK alliance in deterring
Categories: Defense Policy
An Arctic Redesign
The Arctic Council was launched in 1996 as an informal, consensual, and cooperative mechanism without either legal personality or operational mandate. It was designed to enhance measures to collectively protect the Arctic’s environment and to explore sustainable development opportunities.
Categories: Defense Policy
Poking the Hornet’s Nest in Libya: “War Four” and This Time We Get it Right?
Very few of the classic writers on strategy suggest randomly poking a hornet’s nest to see what happens next. The key question for anyone talking about intervention in Libya, however, is exactly what outside intervention can actually accomplish. Various media leaks have talked about a major Italian ground force, an Italian-led mix of European forces, a major U.S.
Categories: Defense Policy
Fukushima Daiichi—Five Years Later
On March 11, 2011, an historic earthquake and tsunami devastated Japan and also caused three reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to experience core meltdowns. Five years later, 99,750 people still cannot return to their hometowns in the Fukushima Prefecture. What are the most significant lessons we can draw from this?
Categories: Defense Policy
The Coming Petroleum Revenues Crisis in the MENA
The world is so focused on ISIS or Daesh—and on the crises in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen—that it is easy to forget that the political upheavals in the MENA region that began in 2011, and have become the “Arab Winter,” arose from other causes.
Categories: Defense Policy
PacNet #26 - Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: time for “Plan B”?
The Korean Peninsula remains technically at war, and military confrontations are a constant source of instability for the wider region. Recently, the security situation has further deteriorated after North Korea conducted a fourth nuclear test and tested an ICBM, calling it a satellite launch.
Categories: Defense Policy
